There Was No Downtick

Part of the reason I started keeping track of media reports of murders in New Orleans was because I saw varying numbers of how many people were murdered. And, when the numbers didn’t vary, the explanations for them did. So, I wanted my own information to make my own conclusions.

I have posted my numbers throughout the year on this blog. It appears I missed two, possibly three murders.

The T-P says this murder was the number 100. I had it as 97. I went back and found a murder I missed, as well as a hit and run fatality that I did not include, though I should have because that is a murder. New Orleans Citizen Crime Watch had both.

I can not find a third murder that I missed. It is probably out there, or the T-P may be including a murder that the coroner concluded happened in 2006, but the victim was found in 2007. I count it in the 2006 stats. The NOPD has counted it both ways, as a 2007 murder and a 2006 murder.

Either way, whether a third uncounted murder exists or not, my numbers in this post for the 2nd quarter of 2007 are wrong. At least 2 should be added to the total.

This means, unfortunately, there was no downtick:

Jul-Aug-Sep 2006 – 53 murders
Oct-Nov-Dec 2006 – 52 murders
Jan-Feb-Mar 2007 – 48 murders
Apr-May-Jun 2007 – 49 murders (possibly one more)

I would also like to highlight some great keeping-it-in-perspective comments made by MAD in the previous post:

With the metropolitan population now at 91% of the pre-K level, use of the 260,000 Orleans Parish population estimates to calculate Orleans murder rates creates a statistical anomaly. While any murder is one too many, of course, we are not really a far more violent city than we were before the storm, as the raw data otherwise suggests. The high murder rate in N.O. murder is in part a function of the artificial setting of narrow parish boundaries, a constraint that many other cities do not share. Draw the parish boundaries for Orleans around Central City, and you will see rates that rival Baghdad, while the rest of Orleans magically becomes "safer".

I agree.

I responded by saying the point of my post is not to judge the relative safety of any given person in New Orleans, but rather to point out that “statistic anomaly” and use it to judge the effectiveness of the New Orleans criminal justice system. They know where the “Baghdads” of New Orleans are, yet are either powerless, incompetent, or uncaring enough to stop the murders there.

MAD made another good point to keep in mind while comparing New Orleans to other cities:

The problem is with publications like the TP boldly declaring to the country that we are once again the "murder capital". We all know what that does to our ability to successfuly rebuild. I am not at all suggesting that we gloss over our problems with violent crime, but if per capita comparative analyses is the standard for informing public perception as to which cities are safe and which are not, then let's compare apples and apples. If 100,000 or so Orleans Parish residents still reside in the area and continue to interact with the city for job and other purposes, but now live just outside of the parish boundaries, then let's factor that into the determination as to the city's per capita murder rate.
Utilization of per capita measurements is valid only if all cities are measured by the same or comparable objective standards, but random and arbitrary political boundary determinations make that difficult and wholly unreliable. A better approach would be to compare murder rates among the nation's SMSAs.

I would still say that the murder rate for New Orleans lets us judge the effectiveness of the New Orleans criminal justice system. For murder rates, the parish boundaries are in no way artificial. Something is going on in New Orleans that is not happening in Jefferson, which is right next door and for a long time had two times the population after the storm.

But the local murder rate does not give an accurate assessment of the safety of the region.

A Downtick of Upticks

[EDIT # 2 - 07/03/07] The T-P says this murder was number 100. My count put it at 97. I found one murder I missed, and maybe they are counting this hit and run, which would be a murder. Possibly, there is one other murder I missed, or they are including a murder which the coroner says happened in 2006, but the victim was found in 2007. I count that murder in the 2006 stats. The NOPD has counted it both ways.

The beating I missed and the hit and run add two to all my numbers in the 2nd quarter of 2007. This means, unfortunately, that there was no downtick.

[EDIT] So, overnight there were two more murders yesterday and one early this morning. That changes all the numbers I had when I wrote this at 1 a.m. The edits are in brackets.

As of July 1, 2007, there have been 93 [95] murders in New Orleans this year (by my count). With 181 days in the year completed, that comes to an average of one murder every 1.94 [1.90] days – basically, a murder every other day. If that average stays the same all year, we will end 2007 with 187 [191] murders. In a city of 262,000 people, that comes to a murder rate of 71 [72.9] murders per 100,000 residents.

If nothing changes, 94 [96] more human beings will die a violent death on the streets of New Orleans this year. And most of those who die will be African-American men, often young, and almost always they will be shot.

From July 1, 2006, to July 1, 2007, there have been 198 [200] murders in New Orleans. Using an average of the population estimates over that time period (223,000 in July 2006; 262,000 in May 2007; the average is 242,500), New Orleans has a murder rate of 81.6 [82.4] murders per 100,000 residents over the past 365-day period.

As a point of reference, the next highest murder rate in the country in 2006 was Gary, IN, (pop. 97,715) with a murder rate of 48.3 murders per 100,000 residents. And the next highest city with a similar population was Birmingham, AL, (pop. 229,424) in fifth place with a murder rate of 44.5. I am not sure what their murder rates are over the last year.

However, there has been a “downtick” (as Mayor Nagin might say) in this last quarter (April, May, and June) with 45 [47] murders:

Jul-Aug-Sep 2006 – 53 murders
Oct-Nov-Dec 2006 – 52 murders
Jan-Feb-Mar 2007 – 48 murders
Apr-May-Jun 2007 – 45 [47] murders

In fact, each quarter has seen fewer murders than the one before it. Let's hope that's a trend, not a blip.

Of course, though I throw out all these numbers, it is not the numbers who die. It is not the numbers we mourn. Family and friends don’t lose numbers.

We lose people.

17 people in January.

13 people in February.

18 people in March.

14 people in April.

15 people in May.

16 [18] people in June.

06/02/07 – 1 murder

78) The woman, Tammie Johnson, 36, of New Orleans, died of a shotgun blast to the chest, chief coroner's investigator John Gagliano said.

On Saturday shortly before 8:30 p.m., police were called to a house in the 4800 block of Rosalia Drive and found Johnson on the floor.

06/03/07 – 1 murder

79) Larry Hawkins, 26, of New Orleans, was found shot dead shortly after 7 a.m. in an alley in the 1300 block of Bartholomew Street.

He suffered two gunshot wounds to the face, Gagliano said.

06/04/07 – 2 murders

80) Earlier Monday, Terrell Ceazer, 25, of New Orleans, was fatally shot in Treme.

***

He died Monday shortly after 4 a.m. at University Hospital, said chief coroner's investigator John Gagliano, who released his identity.

An autopsy showed he died of multiple gunshot wounds.

81) Police said a man was shot to death by his wife Monday evening in the Central City neighborhood, the fourth slaying in New Orleans in three days and the second Monday, police said.

The Orleans Parish coroner's office identified the dead man as George Hammond, 45, of New Orleans.

Police said his wife, Janet Hammond, was a suspect.

Police responded to a call about gunshots in the 1800 block of Second Street shortly before 7:30 p.m., and found George Hammond inside a blue shotgun double, Sabrine Richardson, a police public information officer said.

06/05/07 – 1 murder

82) The Orleans Parish coroner's office has released the identity of a 19-year-old man who was gunned down Tuesday night in Central City.

Someone used an AK-47 assault rifle to shoot Persale R. Green shortly before 10 p.m., New Orleans police said.

Green, of New Orleans, was found face down on a sidewalk in the 1600 block of Baronne Street, midway between Terpsichore and Euterpe streets.

An autopsy showed Green was shot several times, said chief coroner's investigator John Gagliano, who released his identity.

06/09/07 – 2 murders

83) The first shooting occurred about 9:40 p.m. on a sidewalk in the 3400 block of Touro Street, between Pleasure and Lafreniere streets. An 18-year-old man died at the scene, in the area of Interstate 610 and Elysian Fields Avenue.

84) About 45 minutes later, the second shooting took place at Marais and Spain streets, in the St. Roch neighborhood. A 27-year-old man was found dead in the street. He suffered multiple shots to the body, police said.

06/10/07 – 1 murder

85) Samuel Gonzales, 26, of Guatemala, was killed Sunday about 2 a.m. in the 4200 block of Clara Street in the general area of Napoleon and South Claiborne avenues.

Gonzales was found after shots were heard. Police said he was a local resident, but he was from Guatemala, said Gagliano, who released his identity.

06/11/07 – 2 murders

86) A 19-year-old New Orleans man was fatally shot Monday afternoon in his car on a Central City street, dying about three hours later after driving himself to the hospital, police and the coroner's office said.

Darryl Williams was pronounced dead at Touro Infirmary at 3:50 p.m., said John Gagliano, spokesman for the Orleans Parish Coroner's Office.

87) Robin Malta, 43, was found dead in his house at 634 Port St. between Chartres and Royal streets when his sister went to check on him, Gagliano said.

He said the exact cause of death was not known, but the case was being treated as a homicide Monday night.

06/17/07 – 3 murders

88) In a third, unrelated case, the coroner's office Friday identified a man shot to death early Sunday in the Lower 9th Ward as Jason Wynne, 21, who lived in St. Bernard Parish but was originally from Georgia, said John Gagliano, chief investigator of the coroner's office.

Wynne was found in the middle of Gordon and Urquhart streets by 5th District officers responding to a report of shots being fired in the area shortly before 4 a.m., New Orleans police said.

89) Jerrell Jackson, 21, was shot Sunday about 6:30 p.m. in Central City in the 2200 block of Josephine Street, between Simon Bolivar Avenue and South Liberty Street. He was pronounced dead at 7:25 a.m. at University Hospital.

90) In a second fatal shooting on Sunday, the coroner's office has identified the victim as Christopher Roberts, 33, of New Orleans. Police officials didn't provide any information about that killing, which occurred in the 1900 block of Esplanade Avenue.

06/22/07 – 1 murder

91) A 22-year-old man was fatally shot early this morning in eastern New Orleans, police said.

Officers responding to an emergency call found the man laying in the street around 4 a.m. in the 7800 block of Star Street, New Orleans Police said in a news release. The man, whose identity was not released, had been shot several times.

***

The man killed in Little Woods was identified as Samuel Williams Jr. He had gunshot wounds to the back and head, police spokeswoman Officer Jonette Williams said.

06/29/07 – 1 murder

92) A 19-year-old New Orleans man was shot to death Friday on an Annunciation Street sidewalk in a neighborhood of mixed-income homes where the St. Thomas public housing complex was located, police said.

The man was identified as Jeremy Tillman of New Orleans. He was shot several times and died at the scene, police said. One bullet appeared to have entered his side near his heart, officers said.

06/30/07 – 1 [3] murder[s]

93) The murder took place shortly after 1 p.m. at the intersection of Higgins Street and Press Drive, according to Officer Jonette Williams, an NOPD spokesperson.

Fifth District Officers found the victim lying in the driveway of a home with a gunshot wound to the head, Williams said. She was pronounced dead at the scene.

Investigators have not identified the victim, but said she did have a tattoo on her right forearm that said “Jennifer.”

[ADDED]

94) The first of those slayings occurred shortly after 10 p.m. when New Orleans police officers found a 33-year-old New Orleans man dead on the porch of a residence at 1440 Annette Street. The victim, whose name is being withheld pending notification of family, suffered stab wounds to the neck.

[ADDED]

95) The second incident occurred shortly after 11 p.m. when a 33-year-old man died from several gunshot wounds to his body, said Officer Jonette Williams, police spokeswoman.
Fifth District officers responded to a call of gunfire at 3023 Republic St. and found the victim lying on the porch with gunshot wounds to the torso.

I mentioned Jerrell Jackson in a previous post. Law enforcers suspect Jeremy Tillman lived a similarly full thug life:

Police said they have no suspect, although officers speculated that revenge might have fueled the killing.

Detectives were recently investigating Tillman's possible involvement in a fatal shooting about three weeks ago in Central City, officers said, though there was insufficient evidence to arrest him.

Tillman was a "701 release" in February at Orleans Parish Criminal District Court, when the district attorney's office failed to present to a magistrate within 60 days enough evidence to detain him further on charges of possession of crack cocaine and resisting arrest, according to court records.

I do not see the justice in street justice. When Thug #1 murders someone and gets away with it, there is a murderer on the streets. When Thug #2 comes and kills Thug #1 and gets away with it, one murderer is off the streets. But we have gained another murderer, and we are back where we started. Actually, we never went anywhere.

In fact, we seem to be going backwards:

Orleans Parish prosecutors on Friday dropped all charges against the teenager accused of murdering the drummer for the Hot 8 Brass Band in December, saying their key witness, a 15-year-old girl, refuses to testify.

David Bonds, 18, was charged with the second-degree murder of Dinerral Shavers, 25, a band teacher at Rabouin High School and a Hot 8 Brass Band member who was shot in the head while he drove his wife and two children along the 2200 block of Dumaine Street on the evening of Dec. 28.

***

Prosecutors said they have been unable even to serve a subpoena to the state's witness, whose mother refuses to let her daughter cooperate.

"She will never allow her daughter to testify," said Anthony Satcher, a homicide investigator for the district attorney's office, on the witness stand Friday. "She said she'd rather be in jail."

Our community is not only afraid of the murderer on the streets, but also by the murderer behind bars. Thus, the community is held captive while the criminals are set free.

Every One Hurts

As of May 1, 2007, there have been 62 murders in New Orleans this year. With 120 days in the year completed, that comes to an average of one murder every 1.935 days – basically, a murder every other day. If that average stays the same all year, we will end 2007 with 188 murders. In a city of 223,000 people, that comes to a murder rate of 84 murders per 100,000 residents.

If nothing changes, 126 more human beings will die a violent death on the streets of New Orleans this year. And most of those who die will be African-American men, often young, and almost always they will be shot.

I must agree with Slate. This post is becoming predictable.

January – 17 murders.

February – 13 murders.

March – 18 murders.

April – 14 murders

04/01/07 – 1 murder

49) In the third slaying of the weekend, a 20-year-old New Orleans man was fatally shot in a FEMA trailer early Sunday in the 3400 block of Touro Street in Gentilly after what appeared to be a drug deal gone bad, New Orleans police said.

Carl Anthony McLendon died of multiple gunshot wounds in the trailer where he apparently lived, said chief coroner's investigator John Gagliano, who released the identity.

04/02/07 – 4 murders

50) The violent beginning to the week started shortly before 4 a.m. in the 7th Ward. Gunshots rang out near The Duck Off nightcub in the 2300 block of A.P. Tureaud Avenue, police said.

Terry Brock, 22, of New Orleans was shot several times, said John Gagliano, chief investigator for the Orleans Parish Coroner.

51) Officers responded to a home in the 1200 block of Michael Street around 9:10 a.m., police said. Inside, Cleveland Daniels lay bloodied from several gunshot wounds, according to a spokesman for the coroner’s office. Daniels was taken to University Hospital, where he died shortly later.

Police said 17-year-old Westley Simmons, the son of Daniels’ girlfriend, shot Daniels following an argument.


52) The third homicide of the day took place in the middle of the afternoon in the middle of a busy Bywater street.

Police discovered the body of a 21-year-old man just after 2:40 p.m. He had been shot several times. Police said the slaying was drug-related. Alexander Williams, 21, of New Orleans, was pronounced dead less than an hour later at University Hospital, said a spokesman for the coroner’s office.

53) The victim, a 29-year-old man, lay streetside near the corner of Ransom and Dale Streets.

Officers responding to a call of gunshots found the man around 3:10 p.m., police said.

Terry Hall, of New Orleans, was pronounced dead at the scene, according to a coroner’s spokesman. He died from multiple gunshot wounds, including one to his head.

04/04/07 – 1 murder

54) The victim, Dominic Bell, 20, whose last know address was a FEMA trailer park in Baton Rouge, had a lengthy police record and was known in the neighborhood as “D-Block." He died at 6:16 p.m. at University Hospital, said John Gagliano, a spokesman for the Orleans Parish Coroner’s office.

The shooting took place around 5:30 p.m. inside Waad Discount Store on the corner of Governor Nicholls Street and North Johnson Street, police said.

04/06/07 – 1 murder

55) New Orleans Police are investigating the shooting death of a 40-year-old man this morning in Algiers.

The shooting occurred shortly before 5:45 a.m. at 431 Whitney Ave.

04/07/07 – 2 murders

56) A 31-year-old man was murdered Saturday afternoon in the Faubourg Marigny, New Orleans Police said. The victim’s name has been withheld, pending notification of family members.

According to Officer Garry G. Flot, an NOPD spokesman, the incident took place at 12:15 p.m. in the 1300 block of Marigny Street.

Fifth District officers responded to calls of a shooting and found the victim lying on the sidewalk with a gunshot wound to his body, Flot said.

57) Police also are investigating a shooting death late Saturday in the 9100 block of Fig Street.

Shortly before midnight, Second District officers responded to a call and found man lying on the sidewalk with several gunshot wounds to the body.

04/08/07 – 1 murder

58) A woman was found dead inside a FEMA trailer near the temporary campus of Southern University at New Orleans on Sunday morning, the third murder victim in New Orleans over the Easter weekend.

A man has been arrested in connection with the beating death of Artherine Williams, 69, of Dallas, authorities said.

04/10/07 – 1 murder

59) The son of New Orleans music legend Deacon John was fatally shot in his car on an Uptown street Tuesday afternoon, and police quickly arrested a suspect, police said.

Keith Moore, 43, who also goes by the name Deacon Johnson, was shot behind the wheel of his car at or near the intersection of Austerlitz and Annunciation streets, less than a block from Tchoupitoulas Street, about 3:20 p.m., New Orleans police said.

04/17/07 - 1 murder

60) A 16-year-old boy, whose brother and three cousins have died from violence in New Orleans over the past seven years, was shot to death Tuesday night on Bayou Road near Esplanade Ridge.

His father identified the victim as Nicholas Smith, a sophomore at John McDonogh High School and resident of Arts Street in the 8th Ward.

Police responding to a report of a shooting found the boy lying face down in the 1800 block of Bayou Road about 8:20 p.m.

04/22/07 – 1 murder

61) Shortly after 6 p.m., New Orleans police responded to a call about a "male down" in the 4800 block of Alsace Street, and they found the victim lying on the ground. The area is a block east of Alcee Fortier Boulevard, between Peltier Street and Saigon Drive.

The man had apparent gunshot wounds to the body, said Jonette Williams, a police public information officer.

He died Sunday at 7 p.m. at University Hospital, John Gagliano, chief coroner's investigator, said. He said the man was believed to be 30 to 40 years old. An autopsy will be performed today.

04/27/07 – 1 murder

62) A 22-year-old New Orleans man was shot to death and a second man wounded within two blocks of St. Charles Avenue in Central City Friday evening.

The dead man was identified as Curtis Helms Jr. of New Orleans, said chief coroner's investigator John Gagliano.

New Orleans police said both lived in the neighborhood where they were found wounded, on Fourth Street, between Carondelet and Baronne streets. An assault rifle was recovered on the scene by police, police spokesman officer Garry Flot said.

Here’s a map of the 62 murders in New Orleans in 2007.



As always, NOLA-dishu has better crime maps with more information.

More information is exactly what we need.

More On the Murder Rate

Somebody who actually knows what they are talking about weighs in:

A new study by a Tulane University professor puts New Orleans' murder rate as the highest in the country.

The study estimates the city's 2006 murder rate at 96 per every 100,000 people.

***

The new study, by demographer Mark VanLandingham, aims to fix the main flaw in previous per capita murder estimates for 2006: It takes into account the large change in New Orleans' population during the year, with far fewer people in the city at the beginning of 2006 than at the end. That change raises the murder rate substantially.

For instance, using the highest static population estimate VanLandingham found in his research, 201,000, would produce a murder rate of about 80 per 100,000 people, still significantly lower than the new study's conclusion.

Apparently, I was being optimistic when I used a population of 200,000 New Orleans residents.

VanLandingham’s and my conclusions are about the same. The New Orleans murder rate is really high.

I don’t think it is fair to count the first quarter of 2006 because the city’s population was changing so much. That’s why I think it gives us a better view of how bad the problem is and how it continues to be a problem by counting from the second quarter of 2006 to today. In that (almost) 12-month period, I calculated a murder rate of 91 per 100,000 residents (based on a New Orleans population of 200,000, which VanLandingham views as on the high end of the estimates). Of course, my number also assumes that no more murders will happen in March.

I was surprised when I read the T-P article and found that my assumption of a New Orleans population of 200,000 was optimistic:

The New Orleans Emergency Operations Center conducted three separate estimates, with the most recent theorizing that about 181,000 people resided in New Orleans at the end of January 2006, Stone said.

Other estimates have varied greatly. The U.S. Census Bureau's population estimate for Jan. 1, 2006, was 158,000. The Louisiana Public Health Institute estimated that the city boasted a population of about 201,000 between June and October.

Several demographers interviewed said the number is likely lower. Conservative estimates put the population under 200,000.

If New Orleans population today is 180,000, then our murder rate so far in 2007 (37 murders in 71 days) is 105 per 100,000 residents. Wow.

As I said in my last post on the murder rate, we are trending high. That is what worries me. It is possible to have a spate of violent incidents that could be considered an aberration, which would skew the numbers higher making the city seem more violent than it is.

Looking over the past four quarters of violent crime statistics, the number of murders per population is consistently high. There are no aberrations. For her population, New Orleans is a very violent city.

That, and about a hundred other things, is what worries me.