There Was No Downtick

Part of the reason I started keeping track of media reports of murders in New Orleans was because I saw varying numbers of how many people were murdered. And, when the numbers didn’t vary, the explanations for them did. So, I wanted my own information to make my own conclusions.

I have posted my numbers throughout the year on this blog. It appears I missed two, possibly three murders.

The T-P says this murder was the number 100. I had it as 97. I went back and found a murder I missed, as well as a hit and run fatality that I did not include, though I should have because that is a murder. New Orleans Citizen Crime Watch had both.

I can not find a third murder that I missed. It is probably out there, or the T-P may be including a murder that the coroner concluded happened in 2006, but the victim was found in 2007. I count it in the 2006 stats. The NOPD has counted it both ways, as a 2007 murder and a 2006 murder.

Either way, whether a third uncounted murder exists or not, my numbers in this post for the 2nd quarter of 2007 are wrong. At least 2 should be added to the total.

This means, unfortunately, there was no downtick:

Jul-Aug-Sep 2006 – 53 murders
Oct-Nov-Dec 2006 – 52 murders
Jan-Feb-Mar 2007 – 48 murders
Apr-May-Jun 2007 – 49 murders (possibly one more)

I would also like to highlight some great keeping-it-in-perspective comments made by MAD in the previous post:

With the metropolitan population now at 91% of the pre-K level, use of the 260,000 Orleans Parish population estimates to calculate Orleans murder rates creates a statistical anomaly. While any murder is one too many, of course, we are not really a far more violent city than we were before the storm, as the raw data otherwise suggests. The high murder rate in N.O. murder is in part a function of the artificial setting of narrow parish boundaries, a constraint that many other cities do not share. Draw the parish boundaries for Orleans around Central City, and you will see rates that rival Baghdad, while the rest of Orleans magically becomes "safer".

I agree.

I responded by saying the point of my post is not to judge the relative safety of any given person in New Orleans, but rather to point out that “statistic anomaly” and use it to judge the effectiveness of the New Orleans criminal justice system. They know where the “Baghdads” of New Orleans are, yet are either powerless, incompetent, or uncaring enough to stop the murders there.

MAD made another good point to keep in mind while comparing New Orleans to other cities:

The problem is with publications like the TP boldly declaring to the country that we are once again the "murder capital". We all know what that does to our ability to successfuly rebuild. I am not at all suggesting that we gloss over our problems with violent crime, but if per capita comparative analyses is the standard for informing public perception as to which cities are safe and which are not, then let's compare apples and apples. If 100,000 or so Orleans Parish residents still reside in the area and continue to interact with the city for job and other purposes, but now live just outside of the parish boundaries, then let's factor that into the determination as to the city's per capita murder rate.
Utilization of per capita measurements is valid only if all cities are measured by the same or comparable objective standards, but random and arbitrary political boundary determinations make that difficult and wholly unreliable. A better approach would be to compare murder rates among the nation's SMSAs.

I would still say that the murder rate for New Orleans lets us judge the effectiveness of the New Orleans criminal justice system. For murder rates, the parish boundaries are in no way artificial. Something is going on in New Orleans that is not happening in Jefferson, which is right next door and for a long time had two times the population after the storm.

But the local murder rate does not give an accurate assessment of the safety of the region.

A Downtick of Upticks

[EDIT # 2 - 07/03/07] The T-P says this murder was number 100. My count put it at 97. I found one murder I missed, and maybe they are counting this hit and run, which would be a murder. Possibly, there is one other murder I missed, or they are including a murder which the coroner says happened in 2006, but the victim was found in 2007. I count that murder in the 2006 stats. The NOPD has counted it both ways.

The beating I missed and the hit and run add two to all my numbers in the 2nd quarter of 2007. This means, unfortunately, that there was no downtick.

[EDIT] So, overnight there were two more murders yesterday and one early this morning. That changes all the numbers I had when I wrote this at 1 a.m. The edits are in brackets.

As of July 1, 2007, there have been 93 [95] murders in New Orleans this year (by my count). With 181 days in the year completed, that comes to an average of one murder every 1.94 [1.90] days – basically, a murder every other day. If that average stays the same all year, we will end 2007 with 187 [191] murders. In a city of 262,000 people, that comes to a murder rate of 71 [72.9] murders per 100,000 residents.

If nothing changes, 94 [96] more human beings will die a violent death on the streets of New Orleans this year. And most of those who die will be African-American men, often young, and almost always they will be shot.

From July 1, 2006, to July 1, 2007, there have been 198 [200] murders in New Orleans. Using an average of the population estimates over that time period (223,000 in July 2006; 262,000 in May 2007; the average is 242,500), New Orleans has a murder rate of 81.6 [82.4] murders per 100,000 residents over the past 365-day period.

As a point of reference, the next highest murder rate in the country in 2006 was Gary, IN, (pop. 97,715) with a murder rate of 48.3 murders per 100,000 residents. And the next highest city with a similar population was Birmingham, AL, (pop. 229,424) in fifth place with a murder rate of 44.5. I am not sure what their murder rates are over the last year.

However, there has been a “downtick” (as Mayor Nagin might say) in this last quarter (April, May, and June) with 45 [47] murders:

Jul-Aug-Sep 2006 – 53 murders
Oct-Nov-Dec 2006 – 52 murders
Jan-Feb-Mar 2007 – 48 murders
Apr-May-Jun 2007 – 45 [47] murders

In fact, each quarter has seen fewer murders than the one before it. Let's hope that's a trend, not a blip.

Of course, though I throw out all these numbers, it is not the numbers who die. It is not the numbers we mourn. Family and friends don’t lose numbers.

We lose people.

17 people in January.

13 people in February.

18 people in March.

14 people in April.

15 people in May.

16 [18] people in June.

06/02/07 – 1 murder

78) The woman, Tammie Johnson, 36, of New Orleans, died of a shotgun blast to the chest, chief coroner's investigator John Gagliano said.

On Saturday shortly before 8:30 p.m., police were called to a house in the 4800 block of Rosalia Drive and found Johnson on the floor.

06/03/07 – 1 murder

79) Larry Hawkins, 26, of New Orleans, was found shot dead shortly after 7 a.m. in an alley in the 1300 block of Bartholomew Street.

He suffered two gunshot wounds to the face, Gagliano said.

06/04/07 – 2 murders

80) Earlier Monday, Terrell Ceazer, 25, of New Orleans, was fatally shot in Treme.

***

He died Monday shortly after 4 a.m. at University Hospital, said chief coroner's investigator John Gagliano, who released his identity.

An autopsy showed he died of multiple gunshot wounds.

81) Police said a man was shot to death by his wife Monday evening in the Central City neighborhood, the fourth slaying in New Orleans in three days and the second Monday, police said.

The Orleans Parish coroner's office identified the dead man as George Hammond, 45, of New Orleans.

Police said his wife, Janet Hammond, was a suspect.

Police responded to a call about gunshots in the 1800 block of Second Street shortly before 7:30 p.m., and found George Hammond inside a blue shotgun double, Sabrine Richardson, a police public information officer said.

06/05/07 – 1 murder

82) The Orleans Parish coroner's office has released the identity of a 19-year-old man who was gunned down Tuesday night in Central City.

Someone used an AK-47 assault rifle to shoot Persale R. Green shortly before 10 p.m., New Orleans police said.

Green, of New Orleans, was found face down on a sidewalk in the 1600 block of Baronne Street, midway between Terpsichore and Euterpe streets.

An autopsy showed Green was shot several times, said chief coroner's investigator John Gagliano, who released his identity.

06/09/07 – 2 murders

83) The first shooting occurred about 9:40 p.m. on a sidewalk in the 3400 block of Touro Street, between Pleasure and Lafreniere streets. An 18-year-old man died at the scene, in the area of Interstate 610 and Elysian Fields Avenue.

84) About 45 minutes later, the second shooting took place at Marais and Spain streets, in the St. Roch neighborhood. A 27-year-old man was found dead in the street. He suffered multiple shots to the body, police said.

06/10/07 – 1 murder

85) Samuel Gonzales, 26, of Guatemala, was killed Sunday about 2 a.m. in the 4200 block of Clara Street in the general area of Napoleon and South Claiborne avenues.

Gonzales was found after shots were heard. Police said he was a local resident, but he was from Guatemala, said Gagliano, who released his identity.

06/11/07 – 2 murders

86) A 19-year-old New Orleans man was fatally shot Monday afternoon in his car on a Central City street, dying about three hours later after driving himself to the hospital, police and the coroner's office said.

Darryl Williams was pronounced dead at Touro Infirmary at 3:50 p.m., said John Gagliano, spokesman for the Orleans Parish Coroner's Office.

87) Robin Malta, 43, was found dead in his house at 634 Port St. between Chartres and Royal streets when his sister went to check on him, Gagliano said.

He said the exact cause of death was not known, but the case was being treated as a homicide Monday night.

06/17/07 – 3 murders

88) In a third, unrelated case, the coroner's office Friday identified a man shot to death early Sunday in the Lower 9th Ward as Jason Wynne, 21, who lived in St. Bernard Parish but was originally from Georgia, said John Gagliano, chief investigator of the coroner's office.

Wynne was found in the middle of Gordon and Urquhart streets by 5th District officers responding to a report of shots being fired in the area shortly before 4 a.m., New Orleans police said.

89) Jerrell Jackson, 21, was shot Sunday about 6:30 p.m. in Central City in the 2200 block of Josephine Street, between Simon Bolivar Avenue and South Liberty Street. He was pronounced dead at 7:25 a.m. at University Hospital.

90) In a second fatal shooting on Sunday, the coroner's office has identified the victim as Christopher Roberts, 33, of New Orleans. Police officials didn't provide any information about that killing, which occurred in the 1900 block of Esplanade Avenue.

06/22/07 – 1 murder

91) A 22-year-old man was fatally shot early this morning in eastern New Orleans, police said.

Officers responding to an emergency call found the man laying in the street around 4 a.m. in the 7800 block of Star Street, New Orleans Police said in a news release. The man, whose identity was not released, had been shot several times.

***

The man killed in Little Woods was identified as Samuel Williams Jr. He had gunshot wounds to the back and head, police spokeswoman Officer Jonette Williams said.

06/29/07 – 1 murder

92) A 19-year-old New Orleans man was shot to death Friday on an Annunciation Street sidewalk in a neighborhood of mixed-income homes where the St. Thomas public housing complex was located, police said.

The man was identified as Jeremy Tillman of New Orleans. He was shot several times and died at the scene, police said. One bullet appeared to have entered his side near his heart, officers said.

06/30/07 – 1 [3] murder[s]

93) The murder took place shortly after 1 p.m. at the intersection of Higgins Street and Press Drive, according to Officer Jonette Williams, an NOPD spokesperson.

Fifth District Officers found the victim lying in the driveway of a home with a gunshot wound to the head, Williams said. She was pronounced dead at the scene.

Investigators have not identified the victim, but said she did have a tattoo on her right forearm that said “Jennifer.”

[ADDED]

94) The first of those slayings occurred shortly after 10 p.m. when New Orleans police officers found a 33-year-old New Orleans man dead on the porch of a residence at 1440 Annette Street. The victim, whose name is being withheld pending notification of family, suffered stab wounds to the neck.

[ADDED]

95) The second incident occurred shortly after 11 p.m. when a 33-year-old man died from several gunshot wounds to his body, said Officer Jonette Williams, police spokeswoman.
Fifth District officers responded to a call of gunfire at 3023 Republic St. and found the victim lying on the porch with gunshot wounds to the torso.

I mentioned Jerrell Jackson in a previous post. Law enforcers suspect Jeremy Tillman lived a similarly full thug life:

Police said they have no suspect, although officers speculated that revenge might have fueled the killing.

Detectives were recently investigating Tillman's possible involvement in a fatal shooting about three weeks ago in Central City, officers said, though there was insufficient evidence to arrest him.

Tillman was a "701 release" in February at Orleans Parish Criminal District Court, when the district attorney's office failed to present to a magistrate within 60 days enough evidence to detain him further on charges of possession of crack cocaine and resisting arrest, according to court records.

I do not see the justice in street justice. When Thug #1 murders someone and gets away with it, there is a murderer on the streets. When Thug #2 comes and kills Thug #1 and gets away with it, one murderer is off the streets. But we have gained another murderer, and we are back where we started. Actually, we never went anywhere.

In fact, we seem to be going backwards:

Orleans Parish prosecutors on Friday dropped all charges against the teenager accused of murdering the drummer for the Hot 8 Brass Band in December, saying their key witness, a 15-year-old girl, refuses to testify.

David Bonds, 18, was charged with the second-degree murder of Dinerral Shavers, 25, a band teacher at Rabouin High School and a Hot 8 Brass Band member who was shot in the head while he drove his wife and two children along the 2200 block of Dumaine Street on the evening of Dec. 28.

***

Prosecutors said they have been unable even to serve a subpoena to the state's witness, whose mother refuses to let her daughter cooperate.

"She will never allow her daughter to testify," said Anthony Satcher, a homicide investigator for the district attorney's office, on the witness stand Friday. "She said she'd rather be in jail."

Our community is not only afraid of the murderer on the streets, but also by the murderer behind bars. Thus, the community is held captive while the criminals are set free.

Scary

The T-P profiled the Guardian Angels in today’s paper. But that’s not the scary part.

This is:

"Criminals are cowards. They strike where it is easy," Landry said. "Criminals are going to move on if they see the Guardian Angels."

That conviction, however, is not universal. The Rev. Tony Talavera, proprietor of the French Quarter Wedding Chapel, called the Angels earlier this year, asking them to set up shop in the French Quarter. But after meeting them, Talavera changed his mind.

"They won't be effective," he said. "They are wasting their resources here. They aren't even armed. The criminals here are going to laugh at them, then rob them."

Talavera is trying to garner attention and support for a new initiative. He wants Blackhawk Protection Service, a Metairie company that employs lethally armed guards, some recently returned from stints in Iraq, to patrol the Quarter.

I missed this WDSU report, and the excellent point made at the end, which was filed in April:

The company, Talavera said, would be Blackhawk Protection Service. Its employees carry guns and are authorized to hold crime suspects until police arrive.

Blackhawk's plan involves a dozen two-man teams patrolling 24 hours a day.

Talavera said the added protection would combat graffiti, car break-ins, robberies and muggings.

Although Blackhawk said 38 businesses and 15 residents have already signed up, Marianne Lewis said she hasn't joined -- and that no one in the French Quarter should have to foot the bill for added safety.

"We've been paying taxes, and part of that is police protection. To put an additional financial burden on small business owners that they have to come up with any fee per month to keep our employees safe and visitors safe -- that's ridiculous," Lewis said.

These guys aren’t police. Their mission is “to provide physical and tactical security services to our clients with integrity, confidentiality and professionalism.” To their *clients.* Not the people.

Local law enforcement, particularly JPSO, is already starting to look like a paramilitary force. The last thing we need is an actual paramilitary force patrolling the streets.

I am sorry that some French Quarter residents feel the police aren't effective. But, they need to focus on *making* the police effective. If neighborhoods resort to buying their safety, then only the neighborhoods that could afford it would have it.

Also, as a point of reference, there has not been a murder this year in the French Quarter as of today. In fact, the French Quarter has been a murder-free island surrounded by a sea of death. I know this doesn't mean that the French Quarter has been free of all crime. But it has been free of the most violent kind.

Ever Seen an Old Thug?

April 8, 2005:

Members of the New Orleans Police Department have issued an arrest warrant for 19-year-old Jerrell Jackson, wanted in connection with yesterday’s shooting that occurred at the intersection of Lasalle Street and Washington Avenue. The victims were a 19-year-old male and a 20-year-old male whose names are not being released as a security measure.

According to investigators, three males traveled inside of a vehicle at the above mentioned location when a light colored Jeep Cherokee pulled next to their vehicle. The driver of the Jeep Cherokee produced a handgun and fired several gunshots into the vehicle. The driver suffered an apparent gunshot wound to the back and the front seat passenger suffered an apparent gunshot wound to the face and hand. They were transported to a local hospital for treatment and their conditions are unknown. The third occupant, a 19-year-old male, did not report any injuries.

Sixth District Detective Lawrence Dupree conducted an investigation and obtained an arrest warrant for 19-year-old Jerrell Jackson of 3032 South Saratoga Street, relative to three (3) counts of attempted second degree murder, aggravated criminal damage to property and illegal use of a weapon.

July 17, 2005:

This evening, members of the New Orleans Police Department are investigating a series of shootings that results in seven (7) confirmed people wounded in a central city neighborhood. Their ages are from 16 to 61 years of age and their names are not being released as a security measure. The offense occurred shortly after 8:00 p.m., in the intersection of Freret and First Streets.

According to investigators, individuals approached the intersection and began firing multiple gunshots into an area where several persons were standing.

***

Detectives believe tonight’s shooting was in retaliation for last evening’s murder of a 21-year-old male w ho was shot shortly before 10:30 p.m., inside an SUV at the corner of Phillip and LaSalle Street (one block away).

Two of today’s victims, the 19-year-old male with a gunshot wound to the left torso and the 17-year-old male listed in critical condition had Second Degree Murder Warrants for their arrests and are believed to have been the targets of tonight’s shooting.

July 18, 2005:

New Orleans Police have arrested 19-year-old Darrell Davis, one of the persons believed is responsible for last night’s shooting of seven (7) individuals. The offense occurred July 17, 2005, shortly after 8:00 p.m., in the intersection of Freret and First Streets.

As a result, the following persons were wounded from gunfire; a 16-year-old male wounded in the left arm and in good condition; 19-year-old Jerrell Jackson, was wounded in chest and was treated and released into police custody; 19-year-old Darrell Davis, wounded in the right ankle and in good condition; 18-year-old Tony Simmons, wounded in the thigh and listed as critical; a 22-year-old male wounded in the left arm and in good condition, a 61-year-old female wounded in the right thigh and listed in good condition, an unidentified adult male wounded in the head and listed in critical condition, and possibly an unidentified adult male who received an apparent gunshot wound to the leg and did not seek medical treatment who fled after driving other victims to the Medical Center of Louisiana. His whereabouts are unknown.

Detectives believe that a Ford F-150 approached the intersection when Davis and another male got out and opened fire. Detectives also, at this point, conclude that there was an exchange of gunfire between Davis, his unidentified accomplice and unknown persons. Seven persons reported being shot, including Davis. Investigators are in the process of building cases against Davis’ accomplice and others who were involved in the shooting.

19-year-old Jerrell Jackson and 18-year-old Tony Simmons have been identified and arrested in connection with the shooting death of 21-year-old Damien Gordon which occurred Saturday, July 16, 2005, at LaSalle and Phillip Streets. In this case, the victim was driving in the block when two or more individuals opened fire, striking him in the body. The victim later died at Charity Hospital.

November 20, 2006:

On November 20, 2006, the S/TX U.S. Marshals Service Gulf Coast Violent Offenders Task Force arrested Treg EUGENE, 20 years old, in Clear Lake City, Texas. A firearm and narcotics were recovered from the scene where he was arrested. EUGENE, of New Orleans, was wanted by the New Orleans Police Department for a murder that occurred in New Orleans on May 28 of this year.

New Orleans Police Department (NOPD) investigators obtained a warrant for EUGENE for the first-degree murder of Darrell Davis, 20 years old, also of New Orleans. The NOPD investigators allege that Davis was driving in the 2700 block of Monticello St. in New Orleans on May 28 when two gunmen opened fire. Davis’s left arm was hit by a bullet that then entered his body. Davis was able to drive away. After the shooting the Jefferson Parish Sheriff’s Office said that two unknown men dropped Davis off at the Ochsner Medical Center at about 4:30 am. Further information by NOPD investigators alleges that EUGENE and Davis were involved in a botched armed robbery attempt of a member of a local rap record label. EUGENE is believed to have shot Davis during this robbery attempt. EUGENE is also believed to be an associate of Ivory “B-Stupid” Harris who was one of the New Orleans area’s most wanted fugitives earlier this year before his capture by Kenner and NOPD officers.

Last Sunday, June 17, 2007:

Jerrell Jackson, 21, was shot Sunday about 6:30 p.m. in Central City in the 2200 block of Josephine Street, between Simon Bolivar Avenue and South Liberty Street. He was pronounced dead at 7:25 a.m. at University Hospital.

***

Jackson survived a chest wound in a July 17, 2005, shooting, and was shot three times this year, Meisch said.

Jerrell Jackson, arrested for attempted murder in 2005; back on the streets; arrested for murder in 2005; back on the streets; shot a few times; murdered in 2007 at the age of 21. He lived a full thug life.

I am not sure if it is the same Darrell Davis in the above press releases, but the ages do match. If it is the same person, he also lived a full thug life. Arrested in a in a septuple shooting in 2005 (in which both he and Jackson were shot); back on the streets; shot and killed by an accomplice during an armed robbery in 2006 at the age of 20.

I don’t know what else to say.

Each One Had a Father

Three murders on Father's Day. Thirteen murders in June only seventeen days into the month. Ninety murders in the city of New Orleans in 2007.

88) A man was shot to death around 4 a.m. today, the New Orleans Police Department reported.

The unidentified man was found lying in the street at Gordon and Urquhart Streets by Fifth District officers responding to a report of shots being fired in the area.
He had a gunshot wound to the head. Emergency medical technicians pronounced the man dead on the scene.

89) The first shooting [of the evening], in Central City, occurred about 6:30 p.m. in the 2200 block of Josephine Street, between Simon Bolivar Avenue and South Liberty Street. A man died later Sunday in a hospital, police said.

90) About two hours later Sunday, another fatal shooting occurred in the 1900 block of Esplanade Avenue, between North Prieur and North Johnson streets, at the border between the 7th Ward and the 6th Ward.

NOLA Murder Clusters

Of New Orleans' 87 murders (as of 6/12/07), 75 murders occurred inside the shaded area of the map below. That's 86% of the murders. (NOTE: These are my numbers. If you see any errors, please let me know.)



The twelve murders that did not occur in the shaded area are marked with blue placemarks. Two of those are west of the Industrial Canal. Ten are in N.O. East, including a cluster of five murders in the Little Woods area only blocks away from each other.

Also, there are neighborhoods where murders happen in clusters (more than two close together). This map displays those in the shaded areas, as well as the non-cluster murders as blue placemarks.



The neighborhood clusters:

Mid-City/Treme/7th Ward – 25 murders
Central City – 16 murders
Marigny/Bywater/9th Ward – 12 murders
Algiers/Behrman – 8 murders
Hollygrove/Leonidas – 6 murders
Little Woods – 5 murders

Notice there are five areas outside of the clusters where two murders happened within blocks of each other.

A few conclusions can be made from these maps. I am still working on some. In the meantime, I offer the maps up to the gods of the internets.

Google Map Embed Test

2007 New Orleans Murders




ADDED: This is just a test. As pointed out by Schroeder in the comments, go to citizencrimewatch.org for the real thing plus much, much more.

ADDED II: Oh, look. The Times-Pic has a map, too, with more info.

Every Blip Hurts

As of June 1, 2007, there have been 77 murders in New Orleans this year. With 151 days in the year completed, that comes to an average of one murder every 1.96 days – basically, a murder every other day. If that average stays the same all year, we will end 2007 with 186 murders. In a city of 255,000 people, that comes to a murder rate of 73 murders per 100,000 residents.

If nothing changes, 109 more human beings will die a violent death on the streets of New Orleans this year. And most of those who die will be African-American men, often young, and almost always they will be shot.

It seems every month is a “blip” or an “uptick.”

January – 17 murders

February – 13 murders

March – 18 murders

April – 14 murders

May – 15 murders:

05/05/07 – 1 murder

63) Troy Dent, 22, of New Orleans, was shot Saturday about 11 p.m. at South Claiborne and Louisiana Avenue, John Gagliano, chief coroner's investigator said.

Dent, who was shot in a car, died Sunday at 5:15 a.m. at Tulane University Hospital, Gagliano said.

05/07/05 – 1 murder

64) An unidentified man wearing a house arrest monitoring device on his ankle was shot to death in a fusillade of bullets which also wounded a 17-year-old boy Monday night in the Lower 9th Ward.

Monday's shooting came after a bloody Sunday during which at least six people were wounded in New Orleans in several unrelated shootings, according to police.

05/08/07 – 1 murder

65) Officers already in the Pigeon Town area heard shots about 7:50 p.m. and found a man lying on the corner of Hickory and Leonidas streets. He was Michael Combs, 39, of New Orleans, chief coroner's investigator John Gagliano said.

Medics tried to revive Combs, but were unsuccessful, according to police spokeswoman Officer Sabrina Richardson. Combs died at the scene on a sidewalk in front of a bar. Richardson did not know if the bar was open. Numerous bullet casings were found on the sidewalk and street near Combs' body.

5/9/07 – 1 murder

66) A 29-year-old man was shot to death Wednesday afternoon in the 7th Ward and another man with whom he was feuding was taken in for questioning in the incident, police said.

Jay Landers, of New Orleans, died of multiple gunshot wounds.

5/11/07 – 1 murder

67) A 23-year-old New Orleans man was shot and killed in the Iberville public housing complex Friday night, police said.

Police received a call at 7:18 p.m. of a man shot, and found Mark Oneal lying in front of a building in the 1400 block of Conti Street, police spokeswoman Officer Jonette Williams said.

05/14/07 - 2 murders

68) Police found the unidentified man dead Monday morning in eastern New Orleans with gunshot wounds to the head. Officers responding to a call to the intersection of Venice Boulevard and Wales Street about 4 a.m. found the man on the ground, officer Jonette Williams said.

***

Corey Coleman, 21, of New Orleans, was found dead Monday about 6:30 a.m. at Venice and Wales streets. He died sometime early Monday, the coroner's office estimated.

69) And Emanuel Gardner, 17, of New Orleans, was shot in Central City.

***

In an unrelated incident, Gardner was shot in the chest Monday afternoon in Central City. The shooting occurred shortly before 4 p.m. near the intersection of 7th and Freret streets, police said. The victim was taken to University Hospital, where he died at 9:32 p.m., Gagliano said. An autopsy will be performed today.

05/16/07 – 1 murder

70) A 42-year-old Terrytown man was shot to death early Wednesday, New Orleans police reported.

The incident happened about 1:20 a.m. in the rear parking area of an apartment complex in the 3500 block of Garden Oaks Drive, police said.

The name of the victim is being withheld pending notification of family members
According to investigators, Fourth District officers responded to a call of a man shot inside a vehicle. When the officers arrived, they found the man inside a white four-door Hyundai Sonata with several gunshot wounds to the body.

***

Two days later, Edward Charles Balser, 42, of Terrytown, was shot dead in a car in the 3500 block of Garden Oaks Drive.

05/25/07 – 2 murders

71) A young man riding a bicycle was gunned down Friday afternoon in Central City, putting the city's homicide total this year at 72, police said.

Police, following a report of gunshots, found the victim around 2:25 p.m. face down on the ground near the corner of Second and South Miro streets, officer Sabrina Richardson said.

Arthur Dowell, 18, of New Orleans died at the scene, said John Gagliano, chief investigator for the Orleans Parish coroner's office. Dowell was shot multiple times and fell in a patch of grass alongside the street. He was dressed in a collared white shirt, jeans and basketball shoes. Police said they found a .44-caliber Magnum handgun next to his body.

72) A bar shooting episode in New Orleans left one man dead and another wounded in the leg late Friday night, police said.

The shootings occurred at the Daiquiris Island Bar in the 7900 block of Earhart Boulevard, according to the New Orleans Police Department.

Second District police arrived on the scene shortly after 11 p.m. and found a 22-year-old New Orleans man lying on the sidewalk with multiple gunshot wounds to the head and body.

05/27/05 – 2 murders

73) A 17-year-old boy was shot and killed near the route of today's Super Sunday Mardi Gras Indians parade, authorities said.

The slaying happened in the 800 block of N. Dupre, just a block off the parade's Orleans Avenue route.

74) The first shooting happened in the 1200 block of Clouet Street, according to police. Officers from the 5th District received a call around 11 p.m. and found Ernest Williams, of Marrero, suffering from several gunshot wounds to the head and body, according to police. Williams, 24, later died at University Hospital, according to coroner's office.

05/28/07 – 1 murder

75) The second shooting death happened shortly after 1:30 a.m. in the 6400 block of North Villere Street, according to police. A Chalmette man, whose identity has not been released, was shot in an apparent drug buy gone wrong, New Orleans police said.

Officers in the 5th District responded to a call that a man had been shot but he left the scene for a St. Bernard Parish residence. New Orleans detectives met with St. Bernard Parish sheriff's deputies who had just gotten a call from Fourth and Chalmette streets that a man who had been shot arrived at that location, police said. Police arrived to find the victim suffering from several gunshots. He died at a Chalmette emergency medical facility, police said.

05/29/07 – 1 murder

76) A 38-year-old New Orleans man was fatally shot in the head Tuesday morning in the 7th Ward, the latest in a string of fatal shootings across the city.

Shortly before 8 a.m., officers responding to a call of a man down found the victim on the ground in a park near the corner of North Claiborne and St. Bernard avenues, New Orleans police officer Jonette Williams said.

Tuesday's homicide marked the sixth killing in New Orleans since Friday afternoon.
Robert Billiot, 38, of New Orleans, was dead at the scene, said John Gagliano, chief investigator for the Orleans Parish coroner's office. Billiot had been shot once in the head.

05/30/07 – 1 murder

77) A New Orleans cab driver was found shot to death in Algiers this morning.

New Orleans Police said the incident happened around 6:50 this morning in the 3100 block of Rose Lane in the Christopher Homes development.

The 60-year-old Yellow Cab driver died on the scene from a single gunshot wound to the chest, police said.

A Google map of the murders.

State of the Nagin Address

What he said:

"It's not our fault."

What he meant:

“It’s not my fault.”

What’s not his fault? Oyster elaborates:

Re-electing Ray Nagin was an awful, horrible blunder for New Orleans-- for myriad reasons-- but Nagin's commitment to a Police Chief who can't control crime is at the top of the list.

Yes, can’t control crime. Mr. Nagin, you and your appointee can’t control crime. Especially violent crime. Nor can you explain it away:

On the issue of public safety, Nagin said "crime stats are trending in a positive direction comparing first quarter of 2007 to the last quarter of 2006." He said the city has installed 87 cameras in crime hot spots and is on pace to reach its goal of 200 by year's end.

***

Nevertheless, the mayor admitted that the murder problem is not under complete control. He referred to spikes in the body count as "blips" and noted that "we had one this weekend."

A blip? This weekend’s blip included five murders from Friday afternoon to Sunday night.

Mr. Nagin continues to mention blips or upticks when discussing our incredibly high murder rate. Let me express these blips and upticks in a different way.

May 30, 2007, the day Nagin gave his State of the City address, was 150 days into the year. As of that day, 77 people were murdered (by my count) on the streets of New Orleans. That is an average of one murder every 1.94 days. A murder every other day.

The “blips” are not anomalies. They are analogous to a murder every other day in the city of New Orleans. Is that trending in a positive direction?

We have a little more than half the pre-Katrina population in the city but 3/4 the pre-Katrina violent crime. Is that trending in a positive direction?

Wait... Wait... I know what you're going to say.

Hey, man. It’s not my fault.

Crime Numbers

In March 2007, the NOPD released crime statistics for 2006 and lauded them for showing a reduction in crime compared to the year before:

The uniform crime report statistics show a 22 percent reduction in violent crime when compared to 2005 statistics, according to NOPD spokesman Sgt. Joe Narcisse.

Nonviolent crime dropped about 25 percent.

"In most categories you see a reduction in crime," Narcisse said.

Asked whether the statistics offer a fair assessment considering the post-storm chaos and radical reduction in population, Narcisse said the numbers speak for themselves.

"It is what it is," he said. "We may be able to (attribute) some of the reduction to Katrina."

It is what it is.

This week, the NOPD released their official crime stats for the first quarter of 2007. Compared with the same time period last year, there is no overall reduction to be lauded. In fact, violent crime is up 107 percent – more than double.

Hey NOPD, is it still what it is?

The NOPD did not return repeated requests for comment on the statistics Monday.

Wait, don’t tell me. Some of the increase in violent crime may be attributed to an increase in population, right?

Scharf, a frequent critic of the NOPD, called the city's murder rate alarming because it is a marked increase over the previous year without a corresponding increase in population.

A study recently released by GCR & Associates Inc. placed the city's population at 255,137 for March 2007. For January 2006, the start of the same quarter last year, the U.S. Census Bureau estimated that 158,353 were living in New Orleans. That's a population increase of 62 percent.

"You are 182 percent higher (in murders) than last year with a population that hasn't grown at that rate," Scharf said.

What the NOPD said last year [scroll down] around this time:

Although crime in New Orleans has risen as the population grows, the city is still much safer than it was before Hurricane Katrina, police Superintendent Warren Riley announced Friday as he revealed the city's first-quarter crime statistics.

The number of violent crimes reported to police -- murders, rapes, robberies, shootings, stabbings and other serious assaults -- was down by 64 percent in the first three months of this year [2006], compared with the same period last year [2005], Riley said.

The number of murders and armed robberies was down, each by about 74 percent, and nonviolent crime was down about 52 percent, Riley said.

Anticipating the argument that the decrease was insignificant because population is dramatically down in the city, Riley produced figures that he said show that even adjusting for the lower population, violent crime is still down about 26 percent and nonviolent crime about 1 percent, compared with the first quarter of last year. The figures are based on crimes per every 100,000 residents.

Maybe the first three months of this year was one of those “upticks” Mayor Nagin told us about.

Here’s the scary part. Let’s compare the first quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2005, the last Jan-Feb-Mar period when the city was at full pre-Katrina population.

First Quarter 2007

Murder - 48
Rape - 14
Armed Robbery - 190
Simple Robbery - 54
Assault - 447

Total = 753

First Quarter 2005

Murder - 65
Rape - 44
Armed Robbery - 284
Simple Robbery - 85
Assault - 530

Total = 1008

In the first quarter of 2007, total violent crime was down 25 percent from the first quarter of 2005. The only thing is, there were *almost twice as many people* in New Orleans in 2005. With around 56 percent (255,000) of the pre-Katrina population (455,000), we had 75 percent of the *total* pre-Katrina violent crime.

Using the “per 100,000 residents” method that Riley used in May 2006 to claim a 26 percent reduction in violent crime in the first quarter of 2006 as compared with the first quarter of 2005, the numbers say that violent crime is up 33 percent in the first quarter of 2007 (295 violent crimes per 100,000 residents) as compared to the first quarter of 2005 (221 violent crimes per 100,000 residents).

Assuming a first quarter 2006 population of 200,000 residents in New Orleans, violent crime is up 62 percent per 100,000 residents in the first quarter of 2007 (295 violent crimes per 100,000 residents) as compared to the first quarter of 2006 (182 violent crimes per 100,000 residents).

These comparisons aren’t really good for anything except showing that violent crime is not going down in 2007 when compared to the same time period after the storm *or* before the storm - on a per resident basis. But look at how close we are to the pre-Katrina total numbers of violent crime with around half the population. No numbers or formulas can make that look good.

Every One Hurts

As of May 1, 2007, there have been 62 murders in New Orleans this year. With 120 days in the year completed, that comes to an average of one murder every 1.935 days – basically, a murder every other day. If that average stays the same all year, we will end 2007 with 188 murders. In a city of 223,000 people, that comes to a murder rate of 84 murders per 100,000 residents.

If nothing changes, 126 more human beings will die a violent death on the streets of New Orleans this year. And most of those who die will be African-American men, often young, and almost always they will be shot.

I must agree with Slate. This post is becoming predictable.

January – 17 murders.

February – 13 murders.

March – 18 murders.

April – 14 murders

04/01/07 – 1 murder

49) In the third slaying of the weekend, a 20-year-old New Orleans man was fatally shot in a FEMA trailer early Sunday in the 3400 block of Touro Street in Gentilly after what appeared to be a drug deal gone bad, New Orleans police said.

Carl Anthony McLendon died of multiple gunshot wounds in the trailer where he apparently lived, said chief coroner's investigator John Gagliano, who released the identity.

04/02/07 – 4 murders

50) The violent beginning to the week started shortly before 4 a.m. in the 7th Ward. Gunshots rang out near The Duck Off nightcub in the 2300 block of A.P. Tureaud Avenue, police said.

Terry Brock, 22, of New Orleans was shot several times, said John Gagliano, chief investigator for the Orleans Parish Coroner.

51) Officers responded to a home in the 1200 block of Michael Street around 9:10 a.m., police said. Inside, Cleveland Daniels lay bloodied from several gunshot wounds, according to a spokesman for the coroner’s office. Daniels was taken to University Hospital, where he died shortly later.

Police said 17-year-old Westley Simmons, the son of Daniels’ girlfriend, shot Daniels following an argument.


52) The third homicide of the day took place in the middle of the afternoon in the middle of a busy Bywater street.

Police discovered the body of a 21-year-old man just after 2:40 p.m. He had been shot several times. Police said the slaying was drug-related. Alexander Williams, 21, of New Orleans, was pronounced dead less than an hour later at University Hospital, said a spokesman for the coroner’s office.

53) The victim, a 29-year-old man, lay streetside near the corner of Ransom and Dale Streets.

Officers responding to a call of gunshots found the man around 3:10 p.m., police said.

Terry Hall, of New Orleans, was pronounced dead at the scene, according to a coroner’s spokesman. He died from multiple gunshot wounds, including one to his head.

04/04/07 – 1 murder

54) The victim, Dominic Bell, 20, whose last know address was a FEMA trailer park in Baton Rouge, had a lengthy police record and was known in the neighborhood as “D-Block." He died at 6:16 p.m. at University Hospital, said John Gagliano, a spokesman for the Orleans Parish Coroner’s office.

The shooting took place around 5:30 p.m. inside Waad Discount Store on the corner of Governor Nicholls Street and North Johnson Street, police said.

04/06/07 – 1 murder

55) New Orleans Police are investigating the shooting death of a 40-year-old man this morning in Algiers.

The shooting occurred shortly before 5:45 a.m. at 431 Whitney Ave.

04/07/07 – 2 murders

56) A 31-year-old man was murdered Saturday afternoon in the Faubourg Marigny, New Orleans Police said. The victim’s name has been withheld, pending notification of family members.

According to Officer Garry G. Flot, an NOPD spokesman, the incident took place at 12:15 p.m. in the 1300 block of Marigny Street.

Fifth District officers responded to calls of a shooting and found the victim lying on the sidewalk with a gunshot wound to his body, Flot said.

57) Police also are investigating a shooting death late Saturday in the 9100 block of Fig Street.

Shortly before midnight, Second District officers responded to a call and found man lying on the sidewalk with several gunshot wounds to the body.

04/08/07 – 1 murder

58) A woman was found dead inside a FEMA trailer near the temporary campus of Southern University at New Orleans on Sunday morning, the third murder victim in New Orleans over the Easter weekend.

A man has been arrested in connection with the beating death of Artherine Williams, 69, of Dallas, authorities said.

04/10/07 – 1 murder

59) The son of New Orleans music legend Deacon John was fatally shot in his car on an Uptown street Tuesday afternoon, and police quickly arrested a suspect, police said.

Keith Moore, 43, who also goes by the name Deacon Johnson, was shot behind the wheel of his car at or near the intersection of Austerlitz and Annunciation streets, less than a block from Tchoupitoulas Street, about 3:20 p.m., New Orleans police said.

04/17/07 - 1 murder

60) A 16-year-old boy, whose brother and three cousins have died from violence in New Orleans over the past seven years, was shot to death Tuesday night on Bayou Road near Esplanade Ridge.

His father identified the victim as Nicholas Smith, a sophomore at John McDonogh High School and resident of Arts Street in the 8th Ward.

Police responding to a report of a shooting found the boy lying face down in the 1800 block of Bayou Road about 8:20 p.m.

04/22/07 – 1 murder

61) Shortly after 6 p.m., New Orleans police responded to a call about a "male down" in the 4800 block of Alsace Street, and they found the victim lying on the ground. The area is a block east of Alcee Fortier Boulevard, between Peltier Street and Saigon Drive.

The man had apparent gunshot wounds to the body, said Jonette Williams, a police public information officer.

He died Sunday at 7 p.m. at University Hospital, John Gagliano, chief coroner's investigator, said. He said the man was believed to be 30 to 40 years old. An autopsy will be performed today.

04/27/07 – 1 murder

62) A 22-year-old New Orleans man was shot to death and a second man wounded within two blocks of St. Charles Avenue in Central City Friday evening.

The dead man was identified as Curtis Helms Jr. of New Orleans, said chief coroner's investigator John Gagliano.

New Orleans police said both lived in the neighborhood where they were found wounded, on Fourth Street, between Carondelet and Baronne streets. An assault rifle was recovered on the scene by police, police spokesman officer Garry Flot said.

Here’s a map of the 62 murders in New Orleans in 2007.



As always, NOLA-dishu has better crime maps with more information.

More information is exactly what we need.

Someone Murdered a New Orleanian and Was Caught, Convicted, and Sentenced

In Houston:

Christopher Devon Jackson heard his death sentence Thursday, and wept.

***

Jackson, 22, was convicted of capital murder two weeks ago for carjacking Eric James Smith and killing him with a sawed-off shotgun as Smith talked on the phone with a 911 operator.

***

Smith, 34, had come to Houston after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans in late August 2005. He was refueling his rented sport utility vehicle at a gas station in the 6700 block of West Airport when Jackson took it at gunpoint before dawn on Dec. 5.

The death sentence is abhorrent. But that’s not why I point this out.

How many convictions have we had in New Orleans for murders that happened after Katrina? We’ve had at least 230 murders in New Orleans since the storm. How many convictions?

How many convictions for *any* murders have we had?

I know it takes a while to get a conviction. The Houston case happened in December 2005, and a conviction came just two weeks ago. We are behind because the courts shut down after Katrina, evidence was lost in the federal flood, and we don’t have the resources to fully investigate murders after the storm.

But it would be nice to have some examples that the criminal justice system is working after the storm when it comes to violent crime. That is, if it is working…

New Orleans: the Place to Be for Criminals

Going by the picture painted by our leaders:

"My office is a FEMA trailer," Police Superintendent Warren Riley told three members of Congress who presided over a four-hour hearing on the city's criminal justice system Tuesday at Dillard University.

***

In 2005, the police force rose to a roster of 1,741, Riley said, but today is short 482 officers while the homicide rate is at pre-Katrina levels while only about half the population has returned.

"As of April 5, 2007, we've lost another 49 officers," said Riley…

***

"We have one firearms examiner and one fingerprint examiner left," Riley said. The crime lab's backlog includes more than 200 guns and about 2,000 narcotics, all awaiting forensic tests.

***

"I'm asking for very specific things," Nagin said, ticking off a $17 million request for vehicles and equipment, $4 million to provide jobs for 2,000 young people, and $10 million for substance abuse treatment. "We need immediate help. We just don't have the resources at this time."

***

Jordan said his office is at its third temporary location since the district's attorney's office building on South White Street flooded after the levees failed. His lawyers work on card tables, he said, and deal with victims and witnesses who fear testifying because, it seems to them, criminals don't stay in jail very long.

"We desperately need additional prosecutors to screen violent crime in particular," Jordan said. "We need funding for a victim and witness program because of the very real fear victims of violent crime have in this city of New Orleans."

A criminal justice system without offices. A police force hemorrhaging officers. A crime lab that can’t keep up with the number of cases. A mayor saying we need immediate help because we don’t have the resources to fight crime. A district attorney saying he needs funding because violent crime witnesses have a “very real fear” of criminals who, it “seems,” don’t stay in jail very long.

What…. Are we trying to recruit criminals?

If we don’t have the resources for the New Orleans we want, we might have to accept the New Orleans we have. While that might seem like common sense to many of you, that’s a pretty big leap for me. Different conclusions can be made from that premise than I have previously made.

When it comes to crime, particularly violent crime, post-Katrina New Orleans can’t cope. And fighting for more funds from an unwilling federal government for various recovery goals might be taking us away from actually recovering.

I am not giving up. The federal government bears much responsibility for the federal flood and slow response after the federal flood. But, Uncle Sam is not going to buy a brand new, shiny New Orleans for us all.

I just need to rethink my strategy a little.

More Than Numbers

April 3, 2007, is 93 days into the year. In that period, New Orleans has seen 53 murders. That’s an average of one murder every 1.75 days. If that average stays the same all year, we will end 2007 with 208 murders. In a population of 223,000, that comes to a murder rate of 93 per 100,000 residents.

I use numbers like that on this blog all the time. I like numbers. Depending on how you look at them, they can tell all kinds of stories.

But, when it comes to murders, these are more than numbers. Look at the average. If it stays the same, 155 more people will die in New Orleans this year.

If something doesn’t change, 155 more people will die a violent death on the streets of New Orleans this year.

The good thing about these numbers (if there is a good thing) is that it is an average. We will not necessarily have a murder every 1.75 days for the rest of the year. We can change that.

The bad thing is anything we change will be too late for 53 people – both good and bad people. And I am not so optimistic that any change will come quickly.

I am also not optimistic that the current leadership *can* change anything. Look at the last 12 months’ murder statistics by quarters, from the NOPD and my count:

39 murders (April – May – June 2006)
53 murders (July – August – September 2006)
53 murders (October – November – December 2006)
48 murders (January – February – March 2007)

193 murders in the last four quarters.

If you include the last two days, the total is 198 murders in the last four quarters plus April 1 and 2, 2007.

When not a lot has changed, why should we expect anything to change?

What's Going On?

As of April 1, 2007, there have been 48 murders in New Orleans this year. With 90 days in the year completed, that comes to an average of one murder every 1.875 days – basically, a murder every other day. If that average stays the same all year, we will end 2007 with 194 murders. In a city of 223,000 people, that comes to a murder rate of 87 murders per 100,000 residents.

The NOPD released their 2006 crime statistics. The headline: “Cops say violent crime fell 22%.” The NOPD is comparing 2005 stats, when the city was evacuated for much of the last half of the year, and 2006 stats, when citizens were slowly moving back throughout the year.

NOPD spokesman Sgt. Joe Narcisse on how Katrina affected the crime stats:

"It is what it is," he said. "We may be able to (attribute) some of the reduction to Katrina."

Yeah, maybe.

In the first quarter of 2005 (Jan-Feb-Mar), there were 65 murders. In the first quarter of 2006, there were 17 murders. Maybe – just maybe – the NOPD can attribute some of that reduction to Katrina.

In the first quarter of 2007, there were 48 murders. Compared to 17 murders last year during the same period, that’s a large increase. I guess, if we think like the NOPD, maybe – just maybe – we can attribute some of that increase to the absence of a Katrina-like event. April fools.

Not an April fool:

January – 17 murders.

February – 13 murders.

March – 18 murders.

03/02/07 – 1 murder, victim died 03/17/07

31) In an unrelated case, a man shot on March 2 near Canal Street and North Claiborne Avenue died Saturday at University Hospital, Gagliano said.

Josh Rodrique was found in the 2000 block of Iberville Street, near North Prieur street, on March 2 shortly before 7 p.m., police said. He had been shot once in the neck, police and the coroner's office said.

03/03/07 – 1 murder

32) Tonight, members of the New Orleans Police Department are investigating the shooting death of a local male, whose identity is being withheld pending notification of family members. The offense occurred shortly before 11:00 p.m., in the 1100 block of North Prieur Street.

According to investigators, First District officers responded to a call of “ shots fired” and, upon their arrival, found the victim lying in the street suffering from multiple gunshot wounds to his head and body. Emergency medical technicians arrived on the scene and pronounced the victim dead.

03/04/07 – 2 murders

33) A lover's spat turned deadly early Sunday in the Lower Garden District when a 43-year-old woman fatally plunged a kitchen knife into her boyfriend's chest, police said.

Yolanda Anderson stabbed her live-in boyfriend shortly after 12:30 a.m. in the 1800 block of Chippewa Street, police said.

Byron Love, 46, was pronounced dead upon arrival at University Hospital, said John Gagliano, chief investigator for the Orleans Parish coroner's office. He died from a stab wound to the chest.

34) A man was shot and killed Sunday night in Central City, New Orleans police said.

The shooting happened about 9:05 p.m. in the 1400 block of Magnolia Street between Martin Luther King Jr. Boulevard and Thalia Street, in the area of the Guste public housing complex.

03/05/07 – 1 murder

35) A security guard at a FEMA trailer park was shot to death Monday in the latest violence to wrack the city still struggling to recover from Hurricane Katrina, police said.

The shooting, around 5:15 a.m., was at a trailer park in Gentilly, a section of the city that flooded during Katrina. A few hours earlier, another man was shot and killed near the Guste public housing complex.

03/09/07 – 1 murder

36) A 25-year-old man identified by relatives as Kevin Pham was shot dead inside his family's house in the 1300 block of N. Lemans Street.
Police responded the the shooting in the Village D'lest neighborhood in eastern New Orleans shortly before 10 a.m. Wednesday. The victim died at the scene. His car was in the driveway, still running, with hazard lights on.

03/10/07 – 3 murders

37) A 22-year-old woman was shot to death in Treme early Saturday and her 25-year-old friend wounded in the ankle, according to New Orleans police.
The double shooting took place just after 5 a.m. at the intersection of Gov. Nicholls and North Roman streets while the couple was walking, said New Orleans Police Department spokesman Sgt. Joe Narcisse.

38) Around 11 a.m., police received word of a shooting in the 7800 block of Venice Blvd, Narcisse said. Seventh District Officers found the victim lying in the street with gunshot wounds to his head and arm. He was pronounced dead at the scene.

39) The latest murder occurred in Mid-City, near the intersection of Esplanade Avenue and Columbus Street, shortly after 2 p.m., according to Joe Narcisse, an NOPD spokesman. A 23-year-old man was killed at that location. Police found shell casings covering a two block area and an AK-47.

03/18/07 – 1 murder

40) A man shot several times Sunday afternoon in a yard in the 9th Ward died about six hours later at a hospital, the Orleans Parish coroner's office said Monday night.

Sean Robinson, 31, was shot shortly before 4 p.m. in a yard next to a house in the 1200 block of Piety Street, police said.

03/24/07 – 1 murder

41) A New Orleans teenager was killed during a drive-by shooting early Saturday that left three other people wounded, New Orleans police said.
Larry Ramee III, 16, died at North Broad Street and Orleans Avenue from gunshot wounds, chief coroner's investigator John Gagliano said.

03/25/07 – 2 murders, (02/27/07 victim dies)

42) In the other case, Warren Simpson, 22, who recently returned to New Orleans from Houston, was shot along with a second man Sunday about 6 p.m. in the 1500 block of North Roman Street in the 7th Ward.

Simpson was sitting in the passenger side of a car when another man approached and shot Simpson and a man standing nearby.

Simpson got out of the car and ran a few steps before dying between Laharpe and Lapeyrouse streets.

43) Antoine Williams, 17, of New Orleans was found shot to death Sunday about 7 p.m. in a vacant residence in Central City, New Orleans police said.

Police said they were called about a "male down" in a house and found Williams shot in the head at 2510 Freret St. Williams was not supposed to be in the house, which is between Second and Third streets, police said.

03/26/07 – 1 murder

44) A New Orleans man shot in the drive-through of an Algiers fastfood business Monday died Tuesday morning from his wounds, New Orleans Police said.

Terry Despenza, 23, died at local hospital after receiving several gunshot wounds to the body while he waiting at a McDonalds near the intersection of General DeGaulle and Cypress Acres drives.

03/27/07 – 1 murder

45) A 31-year-old New Orleans man was fatally shot late Tuesday night in eastern New Orleans, police said.

A National Guard unit on patrol around 11:10 p.m. discovered a red Dodge Charger in a wooded area in the 7800 block of Paris Road, according to a news release from the New Orleans Police Department.

Inside the vehicle, the guardsmen found a man slumped over with a gunshot wound to the body, police said.

03/28/07 – 1 murder

46) A 32-year-old Algiers man was killed at his home Wednesday afternoon and New Orleans police were questioning a man they believe might have been involved.

Travis Johnson, of 1644 Shirley Drive, died at a hospital after being shot once in the face with a handgun shortly before 11:30 a.m. Capt. D.J. Kirsch, commander of the New Orleans Police Department's Fourth District, said that Johnson was the third homicide in Algiers this year.

03/31/07 – 2 murders

47) A 21-year-old New Orleans man was gunned down overnight in the 6000 block of Chef Menteur Highway, police said.

Seventh District officers found the unidentified man riddled with bullets, including one to the head, inside a blue Chevrolet Tahoe, shortly before 3 a.m. The victim was pronounced dead on the scene.

48) Fourth District officers were called about 7 p.m. to the 1100 block of Horace Street in Algiers, where they found the teenager lying dead on a lawn from gunshot wounds to the body.

Here's a map of the 2007 murders:


What’s going on in that corner of New Orleans East?

I mean, what's going on?

UPDATE: NOLA-dishu's detailed crime maps.

More On the Murder Rate

Somebody who actually knows what they are talking about weighs in:

A new study by a Tulane University professor puts New Orleans' murder rate as the highest in the country.

The study estimates the city's 2006 murder rate at 96 per every 100,000 people.

***

The new study, by demographer Mark VanLandingham, aims to fix the main flaw in previous per capita murder estimates for 2006: It takes into account the large change in New Orleans' population during the year, with far fewer people in the city at the beginning of 2006 than at the end. That change raises the murder rate substantially.

For instance, using the highest static population estimate VanLandingham found in his research, 201,000, would produce a murder rate of about 80 per 100,000 people, still significantly lower than the new study's conclusion.

Apparently, I was being optimistic when I used a population of 200,000 New Orleans residents.

VanLandingham’s and my conclusions are about the same. The New Orleans murder rate is really high.

I don’t think it is fair to count the first quarter of 2006 because the city’s population was changing so much. That’s why I think it gives us a better view of how bad the problem is and how it continues to be a problem by counting from the second quarter of 2006 to today. In that (almost) 12-month period, I calculated a murder rate of 91 per 100,000 residents (based on a New Orleans population of 200,000, which VanLandingham views as on the high end of the estimates). Of course, my number also assumes that no more murders will happen in March.

I was surprised when I read the T-P article and found that my assumption of a New Orleans population of 200,000 was optimistic:

The New Orleans Emergency Operations Center conducted three separate estimates, with the most recent theorizing that about 181,000 people resided in New Orleans at the end of January 2006, Stone said.

Other estimates have varied greatly. The U.S. Census Bureau's population estimate for Jan. 1, 2006, was 158,000. The Louisiana Public Health Institute estimated that the city boasted a population of about 201,000 between June and October.

Several demographers interviewed said the number is likely lower. Conservative estimates put the population under 200,000.

If New Orleans population today is 180,000, then our murder rate so far in 2007 (37 murders in 71 days) is 105 per 100,000 residents. Wow.

As I said in my last post on the murder rate, we are trending high. That is what worries me. It is possible to have a spate of violent incidents that could be considered an aberration, which would skew the numbers higher making the city seem more violent than it is.

Looking over the past four quarters of violent crime statistics, the number of murders per population is consistently high. There are no aberrations. For her population, New Orleans is a very violent city.

That, and about a hundred other things, is what worries me.

The Time Machine

While researching the previous post, I came across this webpage with a January 1, 2000, article written in press-release style entitled New Orleans Murder Count Hits 14 Year Low - Chief Pennington's Promise Becomes Reality:

Superintendent Richard J. Pennington announced that New Orleans recorded 162 murders during the year 1999, the first time since 1985 that the murder count has dropped below 200, and the lowest murder count since 1985's murder count of 152. The 162 murders were a drop of 30% from the previous year and marked the fifth consecutive year that murder has declined in the city.

***

New Orleans murder rate, the number of people murdered per 100,000 residents, stands at 33 for 1999, compared with almost 87 in 1994, the year Pennington was appointed Superintendent of Police. Nationally, the murder rate is between 6.0 and 7.0 murders per 100,000 people, meaning that New Orleans still has many more murders than the national average.

Notice that a couple of past numbers converge with present numbers. We had 162 murders last year, but in 1999 that number was a success story. And we are back to the murder rate of 87 per 100,000 people for the first 70 days of 2007, the same number that Pennington started with and lowered to 33.

What could have been…

One Day, Three Murders

And three other people shot.

The latest murder occurred in Mid-City, near the intersection of Esplanade Avenue and Columbus Street, shortly after 2 p.m., according to Joe Narcisse, an NOPD spokesman.

***

A short time after that shooting, police were on the scene of another shooting near the intersection of Foucher and S. Saratoga streets, Narcisse said.

Around 11 a.m., police received word of a shooting in the 7800 block of Venice Blvd, Narcisse said. Seventh District Officers found the victim lying in the street with gunshot wounds to his head and arm. He was pronounced dead at the scene.

***

The first shootings of the day took place around 5 a.m. as a 22-year-old woman and her male companion were shot while walking in a Treme neighborhood, Narcisse said. The woman was shot twice in the chest and died later at a hospital.

***

Detectives were called out to a sixth shooting in Hollygrove just before 6 p.m.

There are violent days like Saturday. But then there are days when nothing violent happens. One violent day does not mean the sky is falling.

However, on those days when there is an unacceptable level of violence in a city of 200,000 people, this troubles me:

A spokesman for Mayor Ray Nagin did not immediately comment.

Three murders. Three other people shot in the city. In one day. On a weekend, when residents are out and about. A woman and man are walking in Treme, both are shot, one fatally. A man is shot multiple times in his car in Mid-City. On the street. In the afternoon. A man is killed in New Orleans East marking the third murder in that neighborhood in less than three weeks (first, second).

Where’s Ray? Still in D.C.?

He came out to a murder scene right before Mardi Gras. I wonder what was special about that day. But on a day like yesterday, not even his spokesperson has a comment.

I know it was a Saturday, and we here in the alternative European civilization don’t work hard and all – especially on the weekends. But, the Mayor can’t show up on the news saying something? Anything? At least on the phone? Or an email statement?

He says nothing about a violent day that the NOPD describes thusly:

"The only thing unique about today is the overwhelming violence," said Sgt. Joe Narcisse, a police spokesman.

Overwhelming violence doesn’t deserve immediate mayoral comment?

Sgt. Narcisse also had this to say:

Narcisse said people shouldn't read the latest killings as a sign the initiatives are not working. Much of the crime in the city is fueled by the drug trade and "social issues" the [sic] are out of the police department's hands, he said.

True, a single violent incident can’t determine that "initiatives" aren’t working. Even six violent incidents in one day are still six single incidents.

However, the trends over time are not looking great. 37 murders in 70 days so far in 2007 translate into a murder rate of 96 per 100,000 residents, if you assume the population of New Orleans is 200,000 (my preferred choice), or 87 per 100,000 residents, assuming the population of New Orleans is 220,000. Both rates are really high.

At the end of March, we finish the first quarter of the year. Let’s assume (and hope) that there are no more murders for the rest of the month. That would give us a murder count in the first quarter of 2007 of 37.

Looking at the NOPD’s 2006 statistics and using a population of 200,000 in New Orleans (because that’s the one I like and if there are more than 200,000 now, there was certainly less a year ago, so it’s like an average over the past year), from the end of March 2006 to my optimistic hypothetical end of March 2007, there would be 182 murders. That’s a murder rate of 91 per 100,000 residents over the last 12 months. That’s really high.

Here’s the last four quarters individually, assuming a population of 200,000:

2006 second quarter: 39 murders; murder rate = 78 per 100,000 people
2006 third quarter: 53 murders; 105 per 100,000
2006 fourth quarter: 53 murders; 105 per 100,000
2007 first quarter: 37 murders in 70 days; 96 per 100,000

The NOPD stats don’t give 2006 fourth quarter numbers. But, I know 162 murders occurred in 2006. That number minus the total murders in the first three quarters gives me 53. Also, I used a population of 200,000 when calculating the 2006 second quarter murder rate. I think the population of the city was actu